Erste Prognose / Vorhersage Hurrikansaison Atlantik 2010 von Philip J. Klotzbach & William M. Gray (9. Dezember 2009)

Donnerstag, 10. Dezember 2009

Gestern haben Dr. Gray und Philip Klotzbach ihre erste Prognose für die kommende Hurrikansaison im Atlantik veröffentlicht, die man sich komplett als PDF-Datei ansehen kann. Die Essenz in folgender Tabelle:


© Dr. William Gray, Professor of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University

Demnach ist eine Hurrikansaison zu erwarten, deren Aktivität ein wenig über dem Durchschnitt der Jahre von 1950 bis 2000 liegt. Allerdings gilt anzumerken, dass sich das Klima nicht immer nach den Vorhersagen selbst der exzellentesten Experten - wie Gray und Klotzbach sie ohne Frage sind - richtet.

Dr. Gray sagt:

We foresee an above-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2010 and anticipate an above-average probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall. Although these early December forecasts have not shown recent-year real-time forecast skill, we believe our new early December forecast scheme will begin to demonstrate forecast skill in the coming years.

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS*:

1)Entire U.S. coastline - 64% (average for last century is 52%)

2)U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 40% (average for last century is 31%)

3)Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 40% (average for last century is 30%)


PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20°N, 60-88°W)

1) 53% (average for last century is 42%)

*Landfall probabilities are calculated based on the midpoint of our predicted NTC range (e.g., NTC of 140) 3



William M. "Bill" Gray
(born 1929) is a pioneer in the science of forecasting hurricanes. In 1952 he received a B.S. degree in geography from George Washington University, and in 1959 a M.S. in meteorology from the University of Chicago, where he went on to earn a Ph.D. in geophysical sciences in 1964.

Gray is Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University (CSU), and head of the Tropical Meteorology Project at CSU's Department of Atmospheric Sciences. He served as a weather forecaster for the United States Air Force, and as a research assistant in the University of Chicago Department of Meteorology. He joined Colorado State University in 1961. He has been advisor of over 70 Ph.D. and M.S. students.

Gray is noted for his forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity. Gray pioneered the concept of "seasonal" hurricane forecasting—predicting months in advance the severity of the coming hurricane season. Gray and his team (including Christopher W. Landsea, Paul W. Mielke Jr., and Kenneth J. Berry, among others) has been issuing seasonal hurricane forecasts since 1984.

After the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, Gray announced that he was stepping back from the primary authorship of CSU's tropical cyclone probability forecasts, passing the role to Philip J. Klotzbach. Gray indicated that he would be devoting more time to the issue of global warming. His views on global warming are controversial, as he does not attribute global warming to anthropogenic causes, and is harshly critical of those who do.
Credit: Wikipedia